Thursday, October 9, 2008
American's don't care about homes, but wealth.
Americans don't care about being homeowners. They don't. They couldn't care less if they actually owned the house, the land, or anything else for that matter.
Americans want to be, strive to be and care about being wealthy. They will do, buy, or act in just about any fashion to cause this to happen. If they could be financially dependent, wealthy, etc. from buying and selling tulips, they would do this.
Americans look at homes, and treat them, as an investment. Period. Any investment has risk. Investors should know about risk and uncertainty. They should also know that sometimes they lose. And be prepared for it.
As for the rest of the world pointing at this mess starting in, and being caused by the US; poor lending, poor oversight, corruption, collusion, ratings agencies not doing their job the list goes on, I say to the rest of the world, "Take responsibility for your actions, too."
When they were buying MBS reportedly rated as AAA they didn't see those securities were based on US homes, mostly in CA that were increasing in value at astronomical rates by historical standards?
Come on. Take some responsibility.
J
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
JAllen Radio (light humor) “Sucker goin’ down, Part II”
JAllen: “We’ve got a breaking and special story for you today folks! JAllen radio is live on board the Big Bush Boat after being hit by a “torpedo-type-thingy” fired from this very boat! The boat is now taking on water as “the crew” try to deal with the impending sinking.
JAllen: “The Crew” include: Benni and Hanky, Roubini, Mr. Mortgage, and others.
JAllen: “Bennie, have you got this under control?”
Bennie: “You see this button? (winks) I can push this button and this here machine will churn out a bunch of rags…an infinite number of rags if I want. And Hanky will use those rags to mop up. Right, Hank?”
Hank: “I need more rags to mop with! This is not enough. I’m mopping, I’m bailing, I’m shimmering and shaking, but the water I toss overboard just comes right back in! Bennie! MORE RAGS!!”
JAllen: “Cap’n Bush, what do you have to say?”
Cap’n Bush: “Torpedo me once…shame…shame on…Bennie, you’re doin’ a heckuva job”
JAllen: “Roubini, what is being done and what do you need to do to stop this sucker goin’ down?”
Roubini: “First of all, I knew this was coming! I said this would happen! What this Hank and Bennie are doing…this mopping…will never work. There are twelve things we need to do…If you want to know how to fix it, first you need to register at info@rgemonitor.com.
JAllen: Hank, how is the mopping going?
...to be continued
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Slow Screw Part Two - becomes Fast Screw for You
He needed more "margin," or "leverage." Credit.
The truth of the matter is that at the heart of the Great Depression was a credit bubble, much like we have today. And the truth is that only an enormous amount of financial pain for everyone will bring us back to reality. Sooner, the better, right? Dragging this out much longer through bailouts, stimulus packages, etc. only prolongs the pain and the problem. But this is the path we are choosing.
It's like having a sore tooth where the patient spends months eating on the other side of his mouth. But the tooth will not stop hurting until it falls out, or until the patient sees a dentist. The dentist causes some initial pain, but saves the tooth. I'm afraid we're in the process of losing some teeth.
Ben Bernanke knows this. He has prepared for it for decades. The irony is he's a student of the Depressionl. Why isn't he fixing it? Why is it getting worse? He's eating on the other side of his mouth.
Paulson wants to give his buddies (and himself) some Novocaine, cocaine and a get out of jail free card and splash some expensive moonshine on our collective, painful molars.
In my earlier Post, "Slow Screw", I talked about the unfortunate, declining standard of living over the past several generations. It would be sad, except for the fact that we're getting what we deserve. That makes it sad, but equitable.
J
Saturday, September 27, 2008
JAllen Radio - "Is this sucker going down?"
JAllen: Tonight we are discussing "Is this sucker going down, or not?" I'm back today with my usual distinguished guests, Mike Shedlock (Mish), Mr. Mortgage, Patrick of patrick.net and Nouriel Roubini (hisssss!). Patrick, we start with you. Is the sucker going down, or not?
Patrick: Of course, anyone who buys now will suffer losses immediately, and for the next several years at least, as the sucker goes down to come into line with tighter lending and stagnant salaries.
Mish: Me thinks not. It's time to Take Back this Sucker from those who want this sucker to go down at taxpayer expense. Please keep phoning and faxing.
JAllen: Mr. Mortgage, what do you think?
Mr. Mortgage: Any sucker going down will add a large amount of inventory to an already pounded market in the West Coast. This will be caused by Meredith Whitney scaring the crap out of everyone.
Roubini: It is a disgrace that no professional economist was consulted by Congress. I have been predicting the downing of the socialist sucker since 2001. I predict this sucker could very well go down...especially if money isn't loosened up.
JAllen: We have a SURPRISE guest, former governor of NY, Eliot Spitzer. Governor, what's your take?
Spitzer: I've already paid too much for too many suckers going down.
JAllen: Well, there you have it.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Who to Fire?
Bazooka Hank
Moral Hazard Hank
Squirt Gun Hank
Whirly Ben
Uncle Ben
Bailout Ben
Printing Press Ben
Monday, September 22, 2008
WRAPUP 3-US Treasury, Congress ramp up bank bailout talks
* Negotiations ramp up between Treasury, Congress
My comment: The spineless democrats prepare to agree to anything.
* Treasury chief: plan needed to shield economy, taxpayer
My comment: plan will screw economy, taxpayer
* Lawmakers say aim to pass plan by end of week
My comment: Lawmakers want to go on vacation
* Democrats want help for homeowners, taxpayer protections (Recasts; adds comments by Pelosi, Schumer, Dodd; background)
My comment: Homeowners want out of their overpriced homes and mortgages. 700 billion added to taxbill does not protect taxpayers
WASHINGTON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - The Bush administration and Congress on Sunday ramped up talks on an unprecedented $700 billion bank bailout as they battled the clock to prevent further financial market turmoil that risks hurtling the economy into a deep and damaging recession.
My comment: News flash, the economy is already in a deep and damaging recession.
The plan for the largest-ever bank rescue would give sweeping powers to the U.S. Treasury to buy up toxic mortgage-related debt from financial firms, including U.S. subsidiaries of foreign banks.
My comment: Paulson trades his bazooka for neutron bomb.
The plan for the largest-ever bank rescue would give sweeping powers to the U.S. Treasury to buy up toxic mortgage-related debt from financial firms, including U.S. subsidiaries of foreign banks.
My comment: "...so that no bank is left behind."
"This is a new phenomenon for every major player in this place and there are no dress rehearsals. That is why the market is so jittery. This has to work the first time," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Equity Markets in Jersey City, New Jersey.
My comment: The market is jittery because it needs another bailout fix.
J
No Bank Left Behind
Nobody can fail! Well, isn't that special.
1. Who was supposed to be scanning the horizon, looking for problems in the financial industry?
2. If we knew there were problems, when did we know and what were we doing about them?
3. Who is being held accountable for this? Where does the buck (1.2 Trillion bucks) stop?
It seems the way we run our country is that we wait for a disaster to happen, and then run around trying to do something about it. No, it's even worse than that. Disasters have been happening that we knew were coming. We watched them arrive. Watched them hit. Then we run around with our hair on fire, giving obscene authority to the people who were supposed to be watching out for (and avoiding) the problems.
Serves us right.
Heckuva Job Paulie!
Heckuva Job Rummie!
Heckuva Job Brownie!
Heckuva Job Ricey! ...no wait, she hasn't done anything.
What a miserable failure of an administration.
J
Saturday, September 20, 2008
How did we get here? Glass-Steagall Act repealed by Republicans -- and you will know their names
Find the Vote here
I'll help you with this REPUBLICAN BUBBLE MAKER:
Friday, September 19, 2008
Then and Now
NOW: Today, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing coordinated measures designed to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.
THEN:The gigantic edifice of prices was honeycombed with speculative credit and was now breaking under its own weight.
NOW: The gigantic edifice of prices is honeycombed with speculative credit and is now breaking under its own weight.
Then: Florida real estate boom and bust
Now: Florida real estate boom and bust
Then: Al Capone
Now: Al Qaida
??? And although the bankers' pool had prevented for the moment an utter collapse, there was no gain, saying the fact that the economic structure had cracked wide open.
Herbert Hoover (Bush) himself, in a White House statement, pointed out that "the fundamental business of the country, that is, production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis." But toward the close of Saturday's session prices began to slip again. And on Monday the rout was under way once more.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Putin takes his ball and goes home.
President, (oh, make that Prime Minister) Putin said, "Somebody was bound to get hurt, and then we would have had to remove corpses like the Americans...better to stop it before it gets that far.
And home he went, taking his ball with him, until the markets promise to always let everyone win.
Oh, this is a lot of fun.
J
If you have a bazooka...
Nationalization of AIG: Treasury to get 80% stake in return for $85 billion
Paulson: "If you have a bazooka in your pocket, and people know you have a bazooka, you may never have to take it out."
Wrong, Hank. Your bazooka shoots sunshine on troubled organizations.
Fannie 100bn
Freddie 100bn
AIG 87bn
How many bazooka shells ya got left, Hank?
So now do we need to insure against our insurance companies' going bankrupt?
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Bazooka Hank Shellshocked!
Pathetic.
As he was speaking the DOW tanked another forty points.
I understand that he didn't cause the mess, but he surely didn't help anything.
Hank, go polish your bazooka.
J.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Give it a break Karl Denninger
Karl, give it a break.
Nobody was force-fed any of these McMansions, Lexus, iPods, credit cards, HELOCs, exotic mortgages, or credit in general.
Americans did this to themselves. We asked for it. It's our material culture. And now it's our debtor culture. Good morning.
We (most of us) pay attention to the news, what, fifteen minutes a week? How many voting Americans do you think paid more than ten minutes a week attention during the last two presidential elections?
Very few.
We voted for "a religious man." And that's what we got. Someone who said he'd bring "honor" to Washington. We also got the worst president ever. A miserable failure and a miserable excuse for a president. We got what we deserved.
As for our declining standard of living, where have you been these past forty years? Our standard of living has BEEN declining! This is nothing new, or of the past 8 years even.
So, Karl, get off it. You, and all those like you, tire me.
J
He Took IT out!
What?
It.
It?
It.
Out?
Out.
Hank "Bazooka" Paulson took out his Bazooka. The Bazooka that was supposed to stay in his pants.
Change? Makin' Stuff Up. Rove.
I was shocked to see the Republicans' arrogance when they attacked just that -- Kerry's service record. He was "swiftboated."
Now we see it again. Just as the Republicans seemed out and Obama was championing the 'change' message, John McCain argues that he is the "change." And Obama is having a hard time smacking it down. His best answer has been, "You can't just make stuff up."
You know what Barack? They can. They did. They are just makin' stuff up.
They are attacking the unattackable.
That is brave. For good or bad, that is Rove
Saturday, September 13, 2008
JAllen Radio
JAllen: I am here today to discuss Hurricane Ike with four renowned bloggers, Mike Shedlock (Mish), Mr. Mortgage, Nouriel Roubini (hisssssssss!) and Patrick of Patrick.net. Thank you all for being here.
bloggers: (inaudible hrmrmennnfhr.)
JAllen: Let's begin with Mr. Mortgage. What do you think about this Ike?
Mr. Mortgage: This entire Ike deal is still bugging at me. So much, yet so little has happened in the past week my head is still spinning. Its like ‘whoa, did we just experience two of the largest hurricanes in the world (Ike and Gustav) amidst a web of potential fraud this week? Whoa, Whoa!’
Mike Shedlock (Mish) : A massive unwinding of Gustav is now fueling the Ike rally. This Ike is really deflationary. I mean there was massive speculation by Galvestonions shorting Gustav and going long Ike. That too is being unwound.
Those sorry bets were made on the misguided belief that Ike would decouple from the US.
Mr. Morgage: Mr. Mortgage here. Today I'm talking about the housing problem in Texas. There are literally thousands of people just walking away from their homes. They're underwater. I mean literally under water.
Nouriel Roubini : This is the biggest and most socialist hurricane since the formation of the Soviet Union and Communist China. Just as I predicted in 2006. This "Ike" would come.
Patrick : Now is still a terrible time to buy a house...especially in Galveston. It's still much cheaper to rent than to own the same thing.
JAllen: Well, thank you bloggers for being here.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Dear Barack Obama Part II
Well, the GOP has come out swingin' and I bet you didn't think you'd be down this far in the polls. That Alaska lady looks good and her voice is honey to the Republican base. At this point, I could almost vote for her without even thinking about John McCain. She has star appeal.
But so did you not so long ago. You packed tens of thousands into a rally in Oregon, I remember. It reminded me of Woodstock. And your acceptance speech in front of some 85,000 people. That was pretty amazing.
Unfortunately it's gonna take more than 85,000 votes to get you elected.
You picked as your running mate Joe Biden, who got a tiny number of votes in the primaries before dropping out. Hillary Clinton, in the primaries got (I think) more actual votes than you did-- including the 18 million cracks. You won caucus states.
Your current weaknesses are:
1. You are black and many voting democrats (unfortunately) will either not vote or vote against you because you are black.
2. You did not pick Hillary as your running mate and many democrats who want to vote for a woman (they exist in large numbers, by the way) will not vote for you.
3. You are inexperienced.
You are right when you say that this election is not about you, it's about us the electorate. Can we vote for someone who is black and inexperienced?
I think the deck is now stacked against you. I think you would have been better off picking Hillary. You left the door wide open. Wide open.
And now we have to hope that nice, religious lady from Alaska screws up.
So what advice do I have for you? I'll answer that tomorrow.
J.
Pathetic Palin - "Doe in the Headlights"
1. They didn't cost taxpayers anything until they were socialized this past weekend.
That's all I'm gonna say 'bout that.
J
Shop 'til you drop?
This is what is upsetting because we all know the opposite to actually be true. If we save, we have something for a rainy day. When things are tough, like after 911, sacrifice is in order, not a shopping binge.
When Bush, after 911 told Americans to "Go Shopping," I worried. When, upon giving the first stimulus checks, he asked that people "go out and spend it," I was shocked. How can the problems caused by too much shopping and spending be remedied by shopping and spending?
And now Barack Obama is suggesting another round of stimulus checks.
With debt at enormously high levels, and the economy floundering it is time for frugality.
Monday, September 8, 2008
I've fallen and I can't get up continued...
We also have GM, Ford and Chrysler, looking for a mere 50 billion handout.
And just to not be forgotten, we have Boeing getting a kick in the balls by its union workers, expecting it to cost them $100 million per day.
The irresponsibility is mind-boggling.
I think we're just getting warmed up.
J
The Economy: "I've fallen and I can't get up!"
"Stock market crashes, and financial turmoil such as we saw in the 1930s likely won't happen again. Today, we have 'financial safety nets' and markets are so interwoven that they support each other."
It went something like that as I remember.
Unfortunately, it seems the problem with large, strong 'financial safety nets' is that they are able to support an enormous amount of garbage.
So, now the US government backstops the garbage, which means us taxpayers. Who backstops us when we finally breakdown?
J
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Bobby & Baby Buyin' a Home in '05
WE BUYIN’ A HOME!
BOBBY: “Baby, I just got back from the mortgage broker…and…and get this...
baby…we buyin’ a home!”
BABY: “What?”
BOBBY: “That’s right baby we gonna be homeowners!”
BABY: “How’s that, baby?’
BOBBY: “Well, LeRoy the mortgage man told me that he got this loan program called the ARM.”
BABY: “The arm?”
BOBBY: “That’s right baby and da ARM is gonna give us a helpin’ hand.”
BABY: “How’s that?”
BOBBY: “Well, you know how home prices been goin’ up and up and we just been
missin’da boat?”
BABY: “Uh huh.”
BOBBY: “Well now, with this ARM, we gonna buy us a big ol’ house and it’s gonna cost us…get this baby…$1500 a month! Now, with me bringin’ in two and you brining in another one, we got that covered.”
BABY: “Yeah, I guess so.”
BOBBY: “Now, Leroy said that in a year or two, the payment might go up, but by then we’ll have over forty grand of “e-cutie.”
BABY: “E-cue what?”
BOBBY: “E-cutie”, baby. That means our money. ‘Cause prices got nowhere to go but up! And they taken us wit ‘em baby! Takin’ us wit ‘em! And you know the best part?”
BABY: “What?”
BOBBY: “We gonna take that forty grand out with a Hee-lock and refi into a con, go to
BABY: “Refi? What’s refi?”
BOBBY: “I don’t know baby, but LeRoy gonna help us into our new home! And the
...to be continued.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Palin's daughter's baby's father looks like...
Palin's Pains, McCain's
So, in order to quash the rumor that your son is your own, and not your daughter's, you inform the bublic, (yes, bublic) that it can't be your underage daughter's baby because she's pregnant!
Holy moly, Gustav!
It seems the hurricane missed New Orleans and ripped right through the McCain campaign.
There are still questions as to why the baby's birth is not registered at the hospital he was reportedly born and why Bristol suddenly changed schools last year right about the time she would be "showing," and then dropped out due to "mono."
(I am writing this stuff with the meagerest of facts, by the way.)
J.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Sarah Palin's behind = patch of overgrown lawn
This is gonna be the scariest debate since '92 when Admiral Stockwell had a 90-minute chokehold on his pen!
She is so goin' down.
J.
(still I hope she does well)
18 million cracks?
Crack.
J
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Dear John McCain
It seems that you will do anything...ANYTHING to get elected.
We will see how she holds up under fire.
My vote is anyone's guess now.
J
...WHO?!
Monday, August 25, 2008
Dear Barack Obama,
After learning of your picking Joe Biden as your running mate, my plans to vote for you are off.
Before this they were sketchy.
Your campaign has been about Hope and a better future. Joe Biden is not about hope or about making a better future for our country. He represents (at least for me) the miserable failure of a congress we have had for decades. Decades.
He's also a blowhard who talks loudly and carries no stick:
When Joe Biden (D-DE) was asked recently of planned Democratic actions if the President should make good on his promise to veto of emergency spending bill which Democrats loaded with pork-barrell spending as well as a timetable for troop withdrawal from Iraq, he replied at one point that “we’re going to shove it down his throat.“
He has presided over some 30 years of declining standards of living for Americans.
Barack, you've proven yourself a lightweight. Now it's up to us to hope.
J
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Slow Screw
My father, (baby boomer) finished high school. Didn't go to college, but worked blue-collar jobs most of his life. He bought property in CA, put in 3 acres of grapes, sold it to live closer to town and now has a nice home on an acre, a nice camper-trailer, two boats and a great barbecue. This despite a couple of nasty divorces that were financially decimating, I'm sure.
Me? Well my generation (those of us born in the '60s or thereabout) have it a bit tougher. Those two cases above were standard for their generations. For those of us who came later, forget it.
This is what I call "the slow screw." A decades-long slow decline in the standard of living in the US. It's not getting better. It's not going to get better under Jomama or McPain. At least Barak sometimes hints that he is aware of this.
On my trip to the US this summer I met a friend from college who is doing okay. Works in the healthcare industry and rents a nice place on the beach in Newport. (Wisely waiting to buy)
I told him that I thought healthcare is broken, with 1/4 of the US uninsured and so many more overburdened. He asked me if I thought it should be socialized. I almost choked and couldn't bring myself to say yes.
I pointed out to him that this is not a real problem for neither he nor I. We're both doing okay financially. My worry is not us, but his two under-10 daughters and my 9-month old son. What about them?
This is the thinking we are collectively avoiding by continuing the selfish ignorance of the boomers.
J
Friday, August 22, 2008
The US Economy: "I've fallen and I can't get up!"
J
Thursday, August 21, 2008
"Toto, we're not in Cali anymore."
It's not good. Here are some issues I will be writing about:
The country has fallen and it can't get up.
Health care is a scam scamming the people who have it.
We have been subjected to a "slow-screw" for about three generations now.
CA housing: double scam
Too many Americans are socialists, but don't know it.
The baby boomers are taking all the wealth they and their parents created to the graves with them.
BLS = BS
Oh, there's more...
Rampage beginning shortly as I prepare to open one humongous can of weblog-whoop-ass.
J.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Stimulus Checks - The Whole Country on Welfare
So the whole country is on welfare now?
Just got back from 3 weeks in the US looking at the state of real estate. Quite a sorry state.
The president and the politicians say they want to help people stay in their homes... their homes...
It seems a lot of them don't want to.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
The Movie is Over
Two things:
1. It's not helpful to yell, "Fire!" at this point.
2. The movie is over.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Something is wrong here.
Now, I'm all for low taxes in principle. Who isn't, right? But it seems to me that if times are hard we should be frugal. We should save. Buy only necessities. This is logic. This makes sense. This is right.
At the same time, I have read about the Great Depression and the fact that deflation was a problem, apparently. If people aren't spending, the economy slows down and that is bad.
But the fact that in the past 15 years, our total outstanding debt has TRIPLED is also not good.
Go out and spend your stimulus checks! Don't spend it to pay down debt. Go out and spend to keep the economy going!
Something smells bushy here and my stomach is hurting.
J
Sunday, June 8, 2008
been awhile
Now that the nomination is locked by Obama, it will be interesting to see what happens. McCain is old and stiff, and...old. Obama's race, unfortunately will factor in the coming months. It's encouraging to think of the moral boost that minority communities will get with an Obama presidency. There is no limit to what anyone can accomplish in the US.
That's a fact.
J
October 1st, 2008 1:38 am
We Cannot Handle The Truth
What we have here is a failure to communicate.
The facts are that the debt levels of the U.S.A., U.K., Ireland, Spain, Italy, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and many other European and ‘advanced’ economies are too large to be serviced by the income these economies generate.
There are only two ways out of this:
1.) Debt destruction through default leading to a severe recession or depression after which normal and stable growth can resume.
2.) Postponing the problem by the creation of new debt with inflationary results and the eventual necessity of having the above occur latter.
We must pass through debt destruction now or take on more debt and go through a much larger debt destruction latter.
That is the choice. All the other posturing and spin is bull feces.
Paulson and Bernanke and Cox and Bush and Wall Street and the House Leadership and the Senate Leadership, all hoped they could ‘contain’ the problem until after November 4th.
The only rational solution is the Irish Solution, that is protect depositors and thus stop the bank runs, and let investors take a bath.
Dow 8,000 will happen sooner or latter. It is better sooner than latter.